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Post by ForumUser2 on May 8, 2022 7:44:38 GMT 1
Also do not confuse SF having a majority to mean that it has over half of the seats. It is still a long way from that - but it is indeed progress. That is true but the traditionally Nationalist/Republican parties now have a majority over the Unionists. That is now the big unknown. The success of the Alliance party holds the key here. Most commentators consider the voters for Alliance to be Liberal remainers more interested in social and economic conditions than historic prejudice. Reunification confers EU membership which might be the decider for the remainers.
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Post by ForumUser2 on May 8, 2022 7:48:44 GMT 1
Oh, I expect it will be a good while yet. And, under the GFA, reunification can only occur if both the North and South agree independently through a referendum in each part. Curiously the GFA agrees to the provision of a NI ref only if it is clear that a majority in the North support reunification. Er, surely the point of a referendum is to establish exactly that?! So it's not just a question of majority agreement in the North but the Republic must agree to accept the North back into a united island. That's not necessarily something that everyone in the South would support but I suspect the majority would. It will probably come down to economics. Is the south richer than the north? Could they(south) pay for or want to pay for all the sponges in the North with the same that they get now from the queen? Hard decision.
A lot needs to be done but within my life I think I will see a reunited Ireland. Good or bad. Who knows.. Economics is a big factor. The South would have to agree to reunification via referendum - under the GFA even if the North were to vote 100% to unify, the South can say no. That's unlikely but not impossible. A United Ireland within the EU would have huge advantages over its Eastern neighbour.
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Post by cernunnos on May 8, 2022 18:08:39 GMT 1
I would hope that ( eventually ) Ireland will become one nation . The colonial artificialy imported peoples that have caused generations of problems in Ireland will have to accept that Ireland is one country. The English have a lot to answer for !
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Post by davelister on May 9, 2022 10:26:41 GMT 1
Economics is a big factor. The South would have to agree to reunification via referendum - under the GFA even if the North were to vote 100% to unify, the South can say no. That's unlikely but not impossible. A United Ireland within the EU would have huge advantages over its Eastern neighbour. Interesting comment. Why do you think a United Ireland would have any more economic advantages than Eire already has? I'm struggling to find an economic reason ( as apposed to any other ) why the UK would want to keep hold of NI.
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Nifty
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Post by Nifty on May 9, 2022 10:48:32 GMT 1
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Post by ForumUser2 on May 9, 2022 18:20:14 GMT 1
Economics is a big factor. The South would have to agree to reunification via referendum - under the GFA even if the North were to vote 100% to unify, the South can say no. That's unlikely but not impossible. A United Ireland within the EU would have huge advantages over its Eastern neighbour. Interesting comment. Why do you think a United Ireland would have any more economic advantages than Eire already has? I'm struggling to find an economic reason ( as apposed to any other ) why the UK would want to keep hold of NI. I don't think the Republic would be advantaged by the return of the North; however, the North would benefit from Ireland's EU membership along with return to freedom of trade throughout the island. The British border, whether on land or in the Irish Sea, is a huge obstacle to trade and investment in the North. Clearly NI is a net loser as far as the UK exchequer is concerned but that doesn't necessarily mean that it can't flourish in a reunited island. While successive Westminster governments have paid lip-service to improving the North's economy, in practical terms the last few years have stifled it, most particularly the uncertainty of its status post-Brexit and by pandering to the Loyalist extremists in the DUP. But of greater importance to a large part of the Irish population, North and south, is to recover the stolen 6 Counties and finally see off 900 years of oppression. If the Germans had effectively annexed Kent I'm guessing the rest of England would be pretty keen to see off the occupiers, no?
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ibis
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Post by ibis on May 9, 2022 18:29:02 GMT 1
Kinda the same as the Islas Malvinas?
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Post by ForumUser2 on May 9, 2022 19:25:09 GMT 1
Kinda the same as the Islas Malvinas? No
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2022 19:35:03 GMT 1
Kinda the same as the Islas Malvinas? Not really. Although Argentina lays claim to the Falklands, they are no more a part of Argentina than Iceland is a part of Greenland. The islands were uninhabited until Europeans arrived. I don't contend that the UK has a greater claim than Argentina but the English speaking people who do now inhabitant the islands should and must have the final say which is more than Thatcher was giving them until Argentina invaded.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2022 19:37:50 GMT 1
Kinda the same as the Islas Malvinas? there is a joke section on the forum
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Post by davelister on May 9, 2022 20:00:35 GMT 1
So, apart from sentimentality, why would Westminster be keen to keep NI. What advantages to the union are there?
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Post by ForumUser2 on May 9, 2022 20:09:42 GMT 1
So, apart from sentimentality, why would Westminster be keen to keep NI. What advantages to the union are there? Here is a complete list of reasons for maintaining the Union: 1.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2022 21:58:17 GMT 1
So, apart from sentimentality, why would Westminster be keen to keep NI. What advantages to the union are there? I'd guess very few. But for the Conservative and Unionist party and to an extent the Labour Party in Scotland relinquishing UK rule in NI would be damaging for the party responsible.
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Post by davelister on May 10, 2022 7:26:28 GMT 1
I'd guess very few. But for the Conservative and Unionist party and to an extent the Labour Party in Scotland relinquishing UK rule in NI would be damaging for the party responsible. I don't see that. I don't know about Scotland but IMHO most English voters don't give NI a moments thought. The only time it comes up on their radar nowadays is when the unionists complain about something. There are still enough around who remember the bombings and would be more than happy to be rid of the whole lot of them. The question is ( as always ) what is in the best interest for the ruling party at Westminster.
Moving to Scotland I think a lot of people would be sad to see them go as there's been a greater blending both culturally and socially but equally I do think there is sympathy south of the border to their position. Nobody wants to see an unwilling partner forced to stay in a marriage.
Think of it this way, if we didn't have Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, global warming, partygate etc, and the only issue to hit the papers was the right to self determination for the nations within the UK, would the kingdom remain united?
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Post by ForumUser2 on May 10, 2022 7:46:55 GMT 1
The Westminster government exists today on the basis of achieving self-determination having convinced the useful idiots at the referendum ballot box that the UK has achieved some sort of heroic escape from the nasty foreign power that is the EU.
They seem less keen to extend this notion of self-determination to Scotland and NI. It's almost as if it's one rule for us and another rule for them. That couldn't be right, surely?
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