JohnnyD
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Mayenne (53) When Covid allows..........Which isn't very often these days........
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Post by JohnnyD on Jul 21, 2021 13:37:20 GMT 1
I am hearing of a fourth wave on French TV today, and in the UK they are saying hospitals are near capacity and we should expect lockdowns/restrictions again in August in the UK, whats gone wrong? Why does it seem the vaccinations have had so little effect? Who are the people being admitted to hospital, are they vaccinated people or not, its hard to find stats on it. It seems we are no further forward after nearly two years?
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tim17
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Post by tim17 on Jul 21, 2021 13:53:46 GMT 1
So many reasons -
Europe is on holiday, not fully vaccinated, social distancing abandoned etc.
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exile
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Post by exile on Jul 21, 2021 14:13:20 GMT 1
JD
I am hearing of a fourth wave on French TV today, and in the UK they are saying hospitals are near capacity and we should expect lockdowns/restrictions again in August in the UK, whats gone wrong?
Why do you think anything has gone wrong? Back in February a wave of infection in August was predicted. That seems to be where we will be and as such since it was predicted, everything is pretty much on plan.
Why does it seem the vaccinations have had so little effect?
All the evidence is that the vaccinations are doing their job rather well. The majority of cases are with unprotected or partially protected persons - no vaccine, only 1 jab or second jab just a few days before contracting the virus. Those that are fully protected seem to be not getting as sick as would have been the case had they not been vaccinated - stays in hospital are shorter and the number dying is significantly reduced.
The real problem here is the number of people who are not vaccinated. In the UK 0-17 year olds - probably 10 million - plus those in the older age groups who have not, will not or cannot be vaccinated - getting on for another 8 million. In France, although the vaccine is now available for 12 year olds and above, the percentage of those vaccinated is significantly smaller - so expect the French numbers to go south like the UK over the coming weeks.
Who are the people being admitted to hospital, are they vaccinated people or not, its hard to find stats on it. It seems we are no further forward after nearly two years?
As already stated, the majority are the unvaccinated, followed by the partially protected. There are some who have received two jabs and should have peak immunity who nevertheless do end up in hospital. By and large their outcomes are very good compared to the unvaccinated. The vaccine has never been claimed to be 100% effective and so some double vaccinated people will still be vulnerable. Numbers vary depending on which vaccine and which variant. Generally the AZ vaccine is viewed as a little less reliable than Pfizer, so the UK will be slightly more vulnerable than France - with the same levels of vaccination - but France of course is well behind the UK in vaccination uptake.
WE are certainly a lot further forward than we were 18 months ago. The Delta variant is probably twice as infectious as the original virus so without vaccines we would now be seeing problems akin to those in places like Brazil.
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JohnnyD
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Mayenne (53) When Covid allows..........Which isn't very often these days........
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Post by JohnnyD on Jul 21, 2021 14:27:10 GMT 1
JD I am hearing of a fourth wave on French TV today, and in the UK they are saying hospitals are near capacity and we should expect lockdowns/restrictions again in August in the UK, whats gone wrong? Why do you think anything has gone wrong? Back in February a wave of infection in August was predicted. That seems to be where we will be and as such since it was predicted, everything is pretty much on plan. Why does it seem the vaccinations have had so little effect? All the evidence is that the vaccinations are doing their job rather well. The majority of cases are with unprotected or partially protected persons - no vaccine, only 1 jab or second jab just a few days before contracting the virus. Those that are fully protected seem to be not getting as sick as would have been the case had they not been vaccinated - stays in hospital are shorter and the number dying is significantly reduced. The real problem here is the number of people who are not vaccinated. In the UK 0-17 year olds - probably 10 million - plus those in the older age groups who have not, will not or cannot be vaccinated - getting on for another 8 million. In France, although the vaccine is now available for 12 year olds and above, the percentage of those vaccinated is significantly smaller - so expect the French numbers to go south like the UK over the coming weeks. Who are the people being admitted to hospital, are they vaccinated people or not, its hard to find stats on it. It seems we are no further forward after nearly two years?As already stated, the majority are the unvaccinated, followed by the partially protected. There are some who have received two jabs and should have peak immunity who nevertheless do end up in hospital. By and large their outcomes are very good compared to the unvaccinated. The vaccine has never been claimed to be 100% effective and so some double vaccinated people will still be vulnerable. Numbers vary depending on which vaccine and which variant. Generally the AZ vaccine is viewed as a little less reliable than Pfizer, so the UK will be slightly more vulnerable than France - with the same levels of vaccination - but France of course is well behind the UK in vaccination uptake. WE are certainly a lot further forward than we were 18 months ago. The Delta variant is probably twice as infectious as the original virus so without vaccines we would now be seeing problems akin to those in places like Brazil. Thank you Exile, that was the information I was after, where are you getting your info on the hospital admisssons and if they are vaccinated or not? Or is it a collation of data from many sources? |
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exile
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Post by exile on Jul 21, 2021 16:17:52 GMT 1
JD
I have been getting my information from a variety of sources - news reports, documentaries. Note this is information rather than data which must be out there somewhere but maybe is only available to experts.
Two good sources are Dr Chris Smith (Cambridge)and Prof Linda Bauld (Edinburgh) who appear each weekend (Saturday) on BBC Breakfast - as well as at other times.
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tim17
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Post by tim17 on Jul 21, 2021 16:27:31 GMT 1
What I like about those two is they give clear concise answers to often difficult questions in a way that even a thickie like me can understand.
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Post by triumphant on Jul 21, 2021 16:31:21 GMT 1
According to Patrick Valance on TV the other night 'only' 40% of hospital admissions have been vaccinated.
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Post by lapourtaider on Jul 21, 2021 16:33:45 GMT 1
Olivier Veran a few days ago said that 96% of the new D infections were not vaccinated.
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spectre
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Post by spectre on Jul 21, 2021 16:48:52 GMT 1
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Post by triumphant on Jul 21, 2021 16:50:57 GMT 1
Olivier Veran a few days ago said that 96% of the new D infections were not vaccinated. That's interesting however the number of people vaccinated in France and the UK are quite different. However it could indicate that the vaccinated are more likely to be seriously affected by the infection than those with (maybe) natural immunity. I don't really believe that but it just shows what can be done with statistics. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2021 17:03:07 GMT 1
I don't know if it proves or disproves anything but I heard from one of a group of 11 adults and 6 children who went together to Flamingo Land.
5 double dosed adults - covid free.
4 of 6 single dosed adults - infected.
4 of 6 unvaccinated children - infected.
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Post by sw31girl on Jul 22, 2021 8:59:57 GMT 1
I went to our local village market to get a takeaway last night. I went wearing my mask as usual. I seemed to be the only person with a mask which surprised me. I’m quite ok with wearing a mask but I didn’t think the rules had changed.
Anyway, having picked up a really nasty respiratory virus in May, which I still can’t understand how I caught it, I’m sticking to wearing a mask despite what others are doing around here. I’m still recovering from the diverticulitis so for me May, June and July has been a complete write off!
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Post by manonthemoon2 on Jul 22, 2021 22:54:47 GMT 1
Hope you're on the road to recovery SW31
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